Steve Jobs has done many things right. Apple Computer is a marketer’s and designer’s dream company. His thoughts about a post-PC world are one of those things that I believe that he also has right (although maybe not for the reason he has stated). While he may have been talking about the preeminence of their iPad franchise, I believe that it is the evolution of the cell phone and specifically the smartphone that is redefining computing today (or soon will).

Have you seen the Motorola’s new Atrix smartphone yet (pictured above)? It is the winner of the 2011 CES Best of Show and a great example and glimpse of what I want to talk about with you. It has a dual-processor CPU, USB and HDMI ports, a 5 megapixel camera with flash, 16Gb of onboard storage that can be expanded via a microSD slot, WiFi and Bluetooth radios — oh, and yes, it is a phone too.

When mated to its laptop docking keyboard/monitor it is for all intents and purposes your next PC as well:

Besides looking like something out of a nerd’s dream (okay, you busted me), maybe you can help me see how it looks (and acts) any different than that laptop you probably have in front of you right now?

A Tool That You Can Live With

Computers are just tools but a tool that I would be hard-pressed to live without today. These new handheld devices however will be the device of choice for people to live their lives; to get their entertainment, to do their transactions. It will become their credit card, their driver’s license, it will carry their pictures, it will be their camera. It will hold all their medical records, contain all their homework. It will be their life.

What About iPads and Other Tablets?

I don’t believe that iPads or the other tablets are going to have as much impact as the smartphone will (although it certainly is not true today). For one reason, you just look funny holding a tablet up to your head to make a call. Well okay, you can use a headphone with one (although not with an iPad), but it is not as portable or convenient of a device. It is the little stuff that makes the difference.

Also, the iPads are still too expensive to drive the growth. Tablets are kind of a go-between between the PC and the cellphone and the third world can not yet afford them, they can afford a smartphone.

Don’t get me wrong, I love the iPad, in fact I own one and use it everyday. I even use it as my sole computing device when I am on a short trip. In the end though, I am basically carrying around a device that allows me to read and access information (and answer my e-mails).

But my iPad will not not substitute for my laptop for any kind of real production work (like this blog entry). It will not replace my driver’s license, passport or wallet. In short, there is too much that it will not be.

But What About My Laptop?

Yes, your (and my) laptops will be around for a long time. (I’ll bet that you still have a fax machine in your office and that has been obsolete for a long time too.) But as far as for growth and how people will live and work in the future, the handheld device will be the device that is the future.

Disrupted

As Clayton Christensen would illustrate, the evolution of the smartphone is the Disruptive Innovation that will eventually displace the PC. As for today however, my laptop is secure and still my preferred computing device; but I will bet that we will start to see demand for them flatten out and maybe even start to decline sooner than you may think.

The PC as we have known and loved it is Dead — or will soon be (and we will let the iPad kill the Netbook).